Debate wages over Warwick’s La Niña chances
PRODUCERS are resting hopes on a high chance for one of Warwick’s heaviest La Niña seasons yet, but not all experts are convinced.
According to new information from Higgins Storm Chasing, Australia could see its strongest La Niña since 2010/11, now forecast by a majority of global model data sets.
“We could very well see a moderate strength -1.5C La Niña develop by December. This is increasing the odds even higher now for above-average rain, floods, storms and cyclones this season,” the unofficial forecaster website said.
Data referenced included that from NASA, which had the weather occurrence’s strength at whopping -2.0.
But Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Rosa Hoff said BOM relied on different sustained patterns to predict the condition.
A continuing 70 percent likelihood presented a mostly unchanged forecast.
“We have a strong chance of La Niña definitely, but in terms of how strong it could actually be, there’s not as strong a signal as we previously had for La Niña in 2012. There’s not the same level of intensity as that,” she said.
“If there is a La Niña, it will begin October or November and we will start to see conditions persist all the way through February.
“That is the typical pattern and as we know with severe wether, it doesn’t end beautifully.”
The Bureau's #ENSO Outlook remains at #LaNiña ALERT, with further cooling of the surface of the tropical Pacific Ocean expected. Find out more in our latest Climate Driver Update: https://t.co/WztOyxbn0K pic.twitter.com/VikF1idlX7— Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (@BOM_au) September 15, 2020
Ms Hoff even guarded predictions of how much above-average rainfall the region could see, conditions closely associated with a La Niña season.
“Particularly for the central to northern parts of Queensland, La Niña could achieve at least average rainfall, which is an improvement on recent years, and even potentially exceed,” she said.
“But that doesn’t mean every single month would be above average. You should see a seasonal average, if not for every individual month.”