LNP frontbencher Andrew Powell is once again facing a fight to hold on to his Sunshine Coast electorate, with One Nation preferences set to decide the winner.
The former Newman government Minister suffered a 19 per cent swing against him - two-party-preferred - in 2015 when the LNP was swept from office after just one term, and a Courier-Mail Galaxy poll has revealed his primary vote has dropped by another 10 points since then.
Mr Powell's first preference vote in the seat has dropped from an estimated 43.6 per cent - after the recent redistribution - to 33 per cent.
His electoral rival, Labor's Brent Hampstead, is just six points behind with a primary vote of 27 per cent, according to the poll.
One a two-party-preferred basis the pair are sitting on 50 per cent each, with Labor firmly believing the electorate is in play.
One Nation is nipping at both their heels, with its candidate Tracey Bell-Henselin polling at 22 per cent.
Galaxy Research managing director David Briggs said, however, that while Ms Bell-Henselin was polling strongly, she was unlikely to leapfrog Labor and come in second.
"Even if Tracey Bell-Henselin was able to jump ahead of Labor and finish second on November 25, the preference flow from Labor's Brent Hampstead would ensure Andrew Powell was returned," he said.
"Tracy Bell-Henselin can still affect the outcome, however, as her preferences will no doubt determine the winner in the seat."
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