How to win on the SuperCoach AFL stock market
The once-in-a-SuperCoach-lifetime trading freeze will be imminently lifted as anticipation among coaches reaches fever pitch.
We're in uncharted territory, ladies and gentlemen, but order will be restored on Thursday night with a sea of regulatory changes sweeping through the SuperCoach Stock Exchange following COVID-19.
KFC SuperCoach - as we know it - will be a totally different game in FY20 and coaches will need to pivot their investment strategy quickly or risk sub-optimal performance across the abridged season (16 games).
One thing is for certain, it's going to be a buyer's frenzy this week as learned coaches look to capitalise on the forecasted price rise of many speculative, penny and blue chip stocks.
The SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, shares his expert advice on what looks to be one of the most significant bull markets in SuperCoach history this weekend.
THE BULL VS THE BEAR
Global financial markets - including the SuperCoach Stock Exchange - have been rocked by the impacts of COVID-19.
A bull market - much like it's namesake - is typically synonymous with a market that is on the rise, rearing its horns and on an upward trajectory.
A bear market, in contrast, is characterised by sharp declines in asset prices, negative sentiment and a consistent downward trend.
We are on the verge of the greatest bull market in the history of SuperCoach with prices set to skyrocket after the conclusion of Round 2.
It is buying season, investors, so fire-up those cell phones, call your broker and squeeze every penny out of those five, generous trades we've been offered.
BUY LOW, SELL HIGH
The trick of this game is pretty simple: buy low, sell high. That's it.
We may only have a small snippet of financial information (Round 1), but that's going to have to be enough.
You will need to SHORT ("sell") any players - including historic premiums (Exhibit A: Marcus Bontempelli) - that are on the verge of a decline in the value while carefully identifying the group of assets that you're going to go LONG ("Buy") as we ride the ups of the impending bull market.
Shorting any players who are likely to depreciate will help preserve your overall team value, while going long on fast-rising stocks will ensure you're able to create additional liquidity for trades and other manoeuvres during a shortened season.
My trades - subject to selection - look like this:
SHORT: Max Gawn ($697,100) - LONG: Sam Naismith ($251,500)
SHORT: Barry O'Connor ($102,400) - LONG: Samuel Sturt ($123,900)
SHORT: Isaac Cumming ($245,000) - LONG: Jeremy Howe ($431,900)
SHORT: Marcus Bontempelli ($623,000) - LONG: Jack Viney ($439,300)
SHORT: Andrew Brayshaw ($382,800) - LONG: Isaac Heeney ($510,700)
NET PROFIT: +$293,000
Each of the stocks I've selected to go long are destined for an immediate cash injection into The Begala Brigade while also enabling me to reshuffle my rookies and redistribute capital from players such as The Bont.
There are risks. There are rewards. Then there's FY20 of SuperCoach.
GAWN IN 60 SECONDS
The biggest dilemma facing 41,133 coaches involves the future of star Demon and now captain elect, Max Gawn.
He's a set-and-forget scoring juggernaut, however the allure of Sam Naismith (break even -25) is proving challenging to overcome noting his selection will provide an immediate injection of $445K and a forecasted price of $503K as early as Round 5.
Compounding this is the improvements you can make to your portfolio, with $445K enabling you to reinforce all lines - DEF, MID, RUC and FWD - with one fell swoop.
The major impediment to this plan, however, is the forecasted dividends for Gawn over the next month of football that includes:
Round 2: Carlton (average 22 SC, likely opponent Marc Pittonet)
Round 3: Essendon (121 SC, Tom Bellchambers)
Round 4: Geelong (124 SC, Darcy Foort)
Round 5: Sydney (117 SC, Naismith).
If Gawn meets, or better yet, exceeds market projections across Rounds 2-5, then you'll probably need to kiss your overall rankings pursuit goodbye.
Should the blue chip ruck fail to produce the forecasted dividends and you are able to restructure and materially enhance your portfolio, you may be able to offset his scoring influence and ratchet yourself up the rankings curve.
Some coaches are scuttling to acquire Gawn before Round 2, while others - including yours truly - are looking to leverage his value and fortify other deficiencies in their SuperCoach portfolio.
Such is SuperCoach.
Originally published as How to win on the SuperCoach stock market