‘Jet’ Pierata has the power to defy stats in Magic Millions
PIERATA has firmed even further for Saturday's $2 million Magic Millions 3YO Guineas, but debate has raged as to the merits of his inside draw.
As soon as Pierata drew barrier one, tab.com.au trimmed his price from $2.50 to $2.40, while UBET remain a little more generous at $2.50. Betting rival Sasso Corbaro came up with gate 14 and is a $6 chance.
Timeform Australia analyst Adam Blencowe floated some statistics which suggested barrier one is no spoil in the big field.
"In the past 20 years, barrier one over the Gold Coast 1400m has a strike rate of 11.3 per cent (from 2160 starters) for pretty much a break even return if you backed every one of them level staking," he said.
"If you delve into it further and look at those settling between fifth and ninth, where it's likely he will find himself, it drops to 7.5 per cent and seven per cent loss.
"I'm not knocking him in any way at all, because he looks capable of progressing to better races, but I just feel the trimming of the price off the back of the draw was an over-reaction."
UBET's Gerard Daffy also noted barrier one may not be the best marble for Pierata, but described him as "a jet" and is bracing for an onslaught from punters.
"He was already a horror result for us and I reckon it'll probably get worse now because I can guarantee you the general public will want to be on him," he said.
While the 2YO Classic has generally run true to script, bookmakers have been gifted some big results in the 3YO Guineas over the years. Most notably last year when Flying Jess ($101) knocked over Global Glamour, with the $1.65 favourite Winning Rupert out of the placings.
In the 17-year history of the Guineas, 10 winners have been at double figures or longer. Pierata is attempting to join Ha Ha (2002) and Mahuta (2016) as the only favourites to win the race.
Blencowe also produced some statistics that should provide heart for those in the camp of Ef Troop and Sunlight in the Magic Millions.
"In the past 20 years 463 horses have settled first three in running over the Gold Coast 1200m having jumped from 12 or wider for 69 winners (15 per cent) and a profit of nearly 61 per cent on turnover," he said.